|
|
The Revival of Labour in Scotland?
A few weeks ago Labour held their annual Scottish Conference in Aviemore. It was billed as a re-launch for the Party and for their beleaguered Leader Wendy Alexander as Labour has struggled to gain the initiative in Scotland since their defeat in May last year. Many have argued that Labour have still not come to terms with the fact that they lost power in Scotland. This Knowledgeshop briefing from Weber Shandwick Public Affairs takes a quick look at the state of Labour in Scotland and assesses whether they really have made steps to recover their losses of the last year. Please do get in touch if you would like further briefings about politics or public policy development in Scotland. Moray Macdonald Current StatusAfter last year’s election Labour lost their majority in Scotland for the first time in fifty years. In the Scottish Parliament the SNP took 47 seats against Labour’s 46 and Alex Salmond now leads Scotland’s first SNP Government. During the parliamentary term so far the SNP has managed to sideline Labour by avoiding as many substantial parliamentary votes as possible. Where votes couldn’t be avoided the SNP has so far played a clever game of building coalitions on an issue by issue basis, with the Conservative support of their budget the greatest coup so far. At a local level Labour also suffered heavy losses. However, much of Labour’s local loss can be blamed for the change in electoral system which, even on a good day for Labour, would have seen them lose scores of councillors. The result though is that Labour lost 161 (almost a third) of their councillors. The SNP now control or jointly control thirteen local authorities and for the first time has the most councillors in Scotland compared to the other parties. Labour only has majority control over two councils (North Lanarkshire and Glasgow), but remain in joint or minority control in nine other councils. Opinion Polls
In the eyes of the voters Labour continues to do badly. The most recent Scottish Parliament opinion poll showed the SNP with a healthy eight point lead over Labour. SNP 40% (YouGov 5/4/08) If that poll was repeated at a Scottish election, the SNP would gain 3 MSPs taking them to 50, Labour lose 2 to 44 MSPs with the Tories on 17 and Lib Dems on 15 MSPs (www.scotlandvotes.com). On that basis the SNP and Lib Dems would have enough MSPs to create a majority coalition. Despite the SNP’s apparent popularity with the voters their key policy plank, independence, hasn’t gained much support – until recently. During the Scottish Parliamentary elections in 2007 an opinion poll put support for independence at just 32%. However, a TNS System 3 poll released on 13 April 2008 showed that support for independence had outstripped that for the status quo with 41% saying they would vote for the break-up of the UK. This contrasts with 40% of people who did not agree with the SNP's number one priority, while 19% said they did not know how they would vote in a referendum. At a Westminster level the SNP are also gaining on Labour. Traditionally the SNP have struggled to do well for Westminster elections. The latest YouGov poll shows them within touching distance and likely to gain as many as 9 extra seats, making it even more difficult for Labour at a UK level to beat the Conservatives. SNP 31% (+13%) (YouGov 5/4/08) Wendy’s Woes
Wendy Alexander was elected as Scottish Labour leader some six months ago. In that time there has barely been a day when some revelation has not rocked her camp : damaging her reputation and that of the Labour Party as a whole. We have had the resignation of several senior advisers, the resignation of Charlie Gordon over illegal donations to Wendy’s election campaign, accusations of improper fundraising and splits with councillors over major policy issues. On top of all this, and critically, Wendy has a reputation problem. There continues to be a general feeling that she just isn’t up to it and it is only a matter of time until she steps down. At last weekend’s party conference, many journalists watching her speech spent much of the time frowning and with their heads in their hands over the poor quality of her presentation. Wendy isn’t a popular leader. Some of her Shadow Cabinet colleagues, like Jackie Baillie, are enthusiastic supporters; however others see her as a bit too much of a bossy intellectual. What Wendy does have going for her, and why Labour’s woes can’t be compared to the massive defeat of the Tories in 1997, is a still sizeable Labour group in the Scottish Parliament who are committed to getting back into power. The Tories in 1997 were decimated in Scotland, Labour in 2007 merely lost and have time to regroup and get their act together again. Conference 2008Labour’s Aviemore conference was a much quieter affair than previous years. This was Labour’s first conference since losing power and it showed in terms of exhibitors and members attendance. Prior to the conference there was a thought, particularly in the media, that it would be a torrid weekend for the party and Wendy Alexander in particular. To Labour’s credit this proved not to be. The conference was carefully managed which resulted in a duller affair than normal, however it achieved the party chief’s plan of getting to Sunday afternoon without any horrendous gaffes, splits or attacks. Gordon Brown’s key speech focussed on the economy and saving the Union. It was given without notes or autocue, a first for Gordon Brown, and was well received . Wendy Alexander was under enormous pressure to deliver a speech that would put an end to the recent poor performances and start to put Labour back on-track in Scotland. To some extent she achieved that. Despite a slow start to her speech and her inevitable poor attempt at humour, the media and audience were relatively impressed at the speech. Wendy Alexander focussed sections of her speech talking about her background growing up in the West of Scotland in the 1960s and 1970s – and the more impassioned political rhetoric framing Labour against the SNP as ‘socialism versus nationalism’. Whilst it would be far too early to say that her troubles are now behind her – a relatively low-key and non-controversial conference was about as good as it was going to get for Alexander. One aspect that was surprising from the conference was the continued focus on historic achievements. Although the party is rightly proud of some of the huge changes it has brought in, it does seem strange to present the new Labour Party of Scotland by evoking the success of people like Donald Dewar and John Smith. What’s Next?
Labour’s next major electoral challenge in Scotland will be the European elections in 2009. The SNP have traditionally done well in these elections, but due to the small number of Scottish MEPs it will be difficult for any party to make significant gains. Scotland will also lose one MEP in 2009, under current polling it is most likely that the Conservatives would lose one of their two representatives. The European elections will be an important test for Labour in Scotland, and their first since 2007. Unlike England, Scotland will not be going to the polls in May this year. The constitution looks set to dominate the political agenda for the foreseeable future. This poses a problem for Labour with nearly every move by Westminster, and Des Browne as Secretary of State for Scotland in particular, being criticised by the SNP as Labour “bullying” Scotland. Labour, Conservative and Lib Dems have forged a constitutional commission which will most likely recommend some further devolution of powers from Westminster, and even possibly the repatriation of powers such as terrorism. Some Labour MPs see this as pandering to the SNP cause and there is no doubt that this sore will continue to cause problems between Labour at Holyrood and Westminster. |
In this issue
About Weber ShandwickWeber Shandwick Public Affairs is the leading public affairs agency in Scotland with a team of consultants bringing experience from the heart of government, political parties, the Scottish Parliament, Scottish Executive and the private sector. Working closely with our colleagues in London, Belfast, Cardiff and Brussels we can support your work whether you need to communicate to politicians or decision makers in the Scottish Parliament, Westminster, devolved Assemblies or Europe. Pass it onIf you know someone who may be interested in receiving this newsletter, you can easily forward up to five copies at once. |
|
|